Today / Brazil - Serie A / Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino

Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 23:30

Vasco da Gama

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bragantino

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.9%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 50.0% 2.00 -11.8%

Draw 28.6% 29.9% 3.35 -2.5%

Away win 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco da Gama1.3

Bragantino1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 2.00

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Vasco da Gama (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.8%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.5%

Bragantino (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco da Gama face Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco da Gama a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Bragantino 27%, so Vasco da Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vasco da Gama and 1.1 for Bragantino (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco da Gama are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Bragantino. This match finished 0-3.

Vasco da Gama vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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