Today / Brazil - Serie B / Avai vs Goias

Avai vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 22:00

Avai

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Goias

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.9%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.5%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.0% 2.38 +18.3%

Draw 26.5% 32.8% 3.05 -11.5%

Away win 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

Over 3.5 19.2% 23.8% 4.20 -11.6%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.4

Goias0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.20

GOIAS · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +18.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.5%

Goias (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Goias 24%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Avai and 0.9 for Goias (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.25 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Avai vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions