Today / Brazil - Serie B / America MG vs Vila Nova

America MG vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:30

America MG

PPG 0.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Vila Nova

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Away 39% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 29.4% — a clear edge.

+109.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-115.5%0-213.8%0-38.2%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.2%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-01.9%2-13.4%2-23.0%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 46.5% 2.15 -41.7%

Draw 24.3% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Away win 61.5% 29.4% 3.40 +109.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 23.1% 25.3% 3.95 -5.3%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.6%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 0–2 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG0.7

Vila Nova1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.25

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

39%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 14.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -41.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Vila Nova (A) 61.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +109.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 62%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for America MG and 1.8 for Vila Nova (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +109.1%. This match finished 1-2.

America MG vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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