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Corinthians vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico MG

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.8%0-26.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 54.3% 1.84 -32.1%

Draw 31.3% 30.3% 3.30 +3.3%

Away win 31.8% 22.5% 4.45 +41.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 42.6% 2.35 +8.6%

Over 3.5 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -18.4%

BTTS 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0✓ 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.1

Atletico MG1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.38

ATLETICO MG · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 36.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -32.1%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.3%

Atletico MG (A) 31.8%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +41.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Atletico MG in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico MG 32%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Corinthians and 1.0 for Atletico MG (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Atletico MG. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Corinthians vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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