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Gimnasia y Tiro vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:30

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-112.4%0-26.9%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.5%2-17.2%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 38.2% 2.62 -7.8%

Draw 28.6% 40.8% 2.45 -18.0%

Away win 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 33.9% 2.95 +36.3%

Over 3.5 17.9% 16.7% 6.00 +4.4%

BTTS 50.1% 46.5% 2.15 +7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.1%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia y Tiro1.1

Gimnasia Jujuy1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.50

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia y Tiro (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.8%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.0%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia y Tiro face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia y Tiro a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Gimnasia Jujuy 36%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gimnasia y Tiro and 1.1 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia y Tiro are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimnasia y Tiro vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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