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Colon Santa Fe vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-112.4%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-16.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 59.9% 1.67 -27.7%

Draw 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away win 23.9% 17.2% 5.80 +23.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Over 3.5 8.9% 16.7% 6.00 -28.0%

BTTS 46.2% 40.0% 2.50 +15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 1–1✓ 12.5%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe1.0

Atletico Mitre0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.43

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=43.3%

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -27.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Atletico Mitre (A) 23.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Atletico Mitre 24%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.7 for Atletico Mitre (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.86 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Colon Santa Fe vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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