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CRB vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:30

CRB

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.2%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.0%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 67.1% 1.49 -21.3%

Draw 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Away win 22.0% 14.3% 7.00 +32.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

BTTS 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.8

Ponte Preta0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 0.75

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -21.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Ponte Preta (A) 22.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Ponte Preta 22%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CRB and 0.9 for Ponte Preta (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 4-2.

CRB vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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