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Puerto Montt vs San Marcos Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

Puerto Montt

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

San Marcos

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-113.2%0-26.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-17.0%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.4%3-12.4%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 43.5% 2.30 -17.4%

Draw 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

Away win 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 42.3% 46.5% 2.15 -9.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% 25.3% 3.95 -25.6%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Montt1.0

San Marcos1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO MONTT · PPG 2.50

SAN MARCOS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=35.9%

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Montt (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.0%

San Marcos (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Montt face San Marcos in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Montt a 36% chance, the draw 33% and San Marcos 31%, so Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Puerto Montt and 1.0 for San Marcos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Montt are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for San Marcos. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Puerto Montt vs San Marcos Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera B Predictions