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Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chapecoense

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.3%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 75.8% 1.32 -30.4%

Draw 24.4% 21.5% 4.65 +8.1%

Away win 22.9% 9.8% 10.25 +80.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 57.8% 1.73 +2.2%

Over 3.5 34.6% 35.7% 2.80 -3.1%

BTTS 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro1.9

Chapecoense1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.50

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -30.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +8.1%

Chapecoense (A) 22.9%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +80.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Chapecoense 23%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cruzeiro and 1.0 for Chapecoense (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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