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Brazil - Serie A
Regular Season - 17
Governador Magalhães Pinto· Belo Horizonte
Sunday, May 24, 2026
19:00
Cruzeiro
PPG 1.50
2-1
HIT CS2
Chapecoense
PPG 0.33
Away· +80.8%
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
52.7%
Odds: 1.32
EV: -30.4%
Draw
24.4%
Odds: 4.65
EV: +8.1%
Away
22.9%
Odds: 10.25
EV: +80.8%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
59.1%
Odds: 1.73
+2.2%
Over 3.5
34.6%
Odds: 2.80
-3.1%
BTTS
54.6%
Odds: 2.05
+11.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
2-1
✔
3rd
2-0
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
0-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro
1.93
Chapecoense
1.04
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+2.2%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Away(+80.8%)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.7%