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Brazil - Serie A logo Brazil flag Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 17 Governador Magalhães Pinto· Belo Horizonte Sunday, May 24, 2026 19:00
Cruzeiro logo Cruzeiro PPG 1.50
2-1 HIT CS2
Chapecoense logo Chapecoense PPG 0.33
Away· +80.8% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.7%
Odds: 1.32 EV: -30.4%
Draw 24.4%
Odds: 4.65 EV: +8.1%
Away 22.9%
Odds: 10.25 EV: +80.8%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.73 +2.2%
Over 3.5 34.6% Odds: 2.80 -3.1%
BTTS 54.6% Odds: 2.05 +11.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 1-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Cruzeiro
1.93
Chapecoense
1.04

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +2.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Away(+80.8%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.7%

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