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Ferro Carril vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

Ferro Carril

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Central Norte

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.5%0-114.2%0-24.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-111.5%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-14.7%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.2%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 65.4% 1.53 -45.8%

Draw 40.7% 31.3% 3.20 +30.2%

Away win 23.9% 13.3% 7.50 +47.5%

Over 2.5 25.8% 36.4% 2.75 -17.4%

Over 3.5 5.0% 16.7% 6.00 -42.0%

BTTS 41.8% 37.7% 2.65 +10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.5%

#2 1–0✓ 20.6%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–1 14.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril0.8

Central Norte0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 0.80

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 35.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -45.8%

Draw 40.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +30.2%

Central Norte (A) 23.9%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face Central Norte in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Central Norte 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ferro Carril and 0.6 for Central Norte (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Central Norte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Ferro Carril vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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