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Agropecuario vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Quilmes

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-115.6%0-27.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.8%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.3%2-15.7%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Draw 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

Away win 32.8% 25.6% 3.90 +27.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 35.1% 2.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 10.1% 15.4% 6.50 -20.6%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario0.9

Quilmes0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.43

QUILMES · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=34.6%

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.1%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.0%

Quilmes (A) 32.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Quilmes 33%, so Agropecuario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Agropecuario and 0.9 for Quilmes (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.57 for Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Agropecuario vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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