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Chacarita J. vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:30

Chacarita J.

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Almagro

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.5%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 57.8% 1.73 -18.9%

Draw 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Away win 20.8% 19.0% 5.25 +5.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 3.5 10.5% 18.2% 5.50 -25.4%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0✓ 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita J.1.2

Almagro0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA J. · PPG 1.86

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=46.9%

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita J. (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.9%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Almagro (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita J. face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita J. a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Almagro 21%, so Chacarita J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chacarita J. and 0.6 for Almagro (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita J. are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Chacarita J. vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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