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Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-111.1%0-23.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.7%1-111.9%1-23.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.0%2-16.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 51.3% 1.95 -8.9%

Draw 32.4% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Away win 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 34.5% 2.90 +1.5%

Over 3.5 8.4% 15.4% 6.50 -27.2%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 1–0 20.7%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0✓ 11.0%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron1.1

CA Estudiantes0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.43

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.9%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

CA Estudiantes (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face CA Estudiantes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 47% chance, the draw 32% and CA Estudiantes 21%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Moron and 0.6 for CA Estudiantes (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.43 for CA Estudiantes. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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