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Gagra vs Dila Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 17:00

Gagra

PPG 0.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Dila Gori

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-120.1%0-210.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-112.1%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-03.5%2-13.7%2-21.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Draw 34.0% 32.3% 3.10 +5.4%

Away win 42.5% 57.1% 1.75 -25.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 8.4% 25.5% 3.92 -40.2%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 0–1 20.1%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–0 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra0.6

Dila Gori1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 0.43

DILA GORI · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.4%

Dila Gori (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Dila Gori in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 24% chance, the draw 34% and Dila Gori 43%, so Dila Gori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gagra and 1.0 for Dila Gori (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Dila Gori. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Gagra vs Dila Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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