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Acassuso vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 17:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.7%0-118.6%0-27.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.1%2-14.0%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 34.5% 2.90 -14.2%

Draw 40.0% 37.0% 2.70 +8.0%

Away win 33.6% 38.2% 2.62 -12.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%

Over 3.5 5.8% 15.4% 6.50 -37.4%

BTTS 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.8%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.7%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 1–0✓ 15.5%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso0.7

D. de Belgrano0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.17

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 26.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 40.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +8.0%

D. de Belgrano (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face D. de Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 26% chance, the draw 40% and D. de Belgrano 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Acassuso and 0.8 for D. de Belgrano (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.43 for D. de Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Acassuso vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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