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Sporting Gijon vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Sporting Gijon

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Almeria

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.7%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.2%1-110.8%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 24.4% 4.10 +63.2%

Draw 24.8% 25.3% 3.95 -1.2%

Away win 35.4% 57.1% 1.75 -38.0%

Over 2.5 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Over 3.5 37.6% 43.5% 2.30 -13.5%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Gijon1.6

Almeria1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 1.80

ALMERIA · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Gijon (H) 39.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +63.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.2%

Almeria (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -38.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Gijon face Almeria in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Gijon a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Almeria 35%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sporting Gijon and 1.5 for Almeria (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.35 for Almeria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Sporting Gijon vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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