Sporting Gijon vs Almeria Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 41 El Molinón· Gijon Sunday, May 24, 2026 16:30

Sporting Gijon PPG 1.80

3-1 MISS

Almeria PPG 1.35

Home· +63.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +63.2%

Draw 24.8%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -1.2%

Away 35.4%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -38.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: 1.53 -6.2%

Over 3.5 37.6% Odds: 2.30 -13.5%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.50 -10.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting Gijon

1.61

Almeria

1.50

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -6.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -6.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+63.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)