Today / Spain - Segunda División / Mirandes vs Granada

Mirandes vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Mirandes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.3%0-27.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-17.3%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.1%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 67.1% 1.49 -46.5%

Draw 27.3% 23.3% 4.30 +10.4%

Away win 36.8% 16.1% 6.20 +128.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Over 3.5 23.4% 35.7% 2.80 -20.7%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirandes1.1

Granada1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRANDES · PPG 1.00

GRANADA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Mirandes (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -46.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +10.4%

Granada (A) 36.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +128.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirandes face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirandes a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Granada 37%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mirandes and 1.3 for Granada (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirandes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.10 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +128.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Mirandes vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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