Today / Spain - Segunda División / Leonesa vs Burgos

Leonesa vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Leonesa

PPG 0.85 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Burgos

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-116.7%0-210.6%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.7%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.8%2-14.8%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Draw 30.3% 31.7% 3.15 -4.6%

Away win 45.2% 41.7% 2.40 +8.5%

Over 2.5 46.0% 42.0% 2.38 +9.5%

Over 3.5 14.7% 22.2% 4.50 -20.3%

BTTS 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 45% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 0–1 16.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2✓ 10.6%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa0.8

Burgos1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.85

BURGOS · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.55) vs Home POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.6%

Burgos (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Burgos 45%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leonesa and 1.3 for Burgos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 1.55 for Burgos. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Leonesa vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions