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Las Palmas vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Las Palmas

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Zaragoza

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 66% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-17.5%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-111.3%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-18.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.3%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 71.9% 1.39 -27.4%

Draw 26.2% 23.0% 4.35 +8.4%

Away win 21.7% 12.2% 8.20 +46.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 17.2% 33.3% 3.00 -29.0%

BTTS 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 2–0 13.2%

#4 1–1✓ 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Palmas1.5

Real Zaragoza0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS PALMAS · PPG 2.05

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.05) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Win probability 1X2

Las Palmas (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -27.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +8.4%

Real Zaragoza (A) 21.7%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +46.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Palmas face Real Zaragoza in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Palmas a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Real Zaragoza 22%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Las Palmas and 0.6 for Real Zaragoza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Palmas are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 0.85 for Real Zaragoza. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Las Palmas vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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