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Huesca vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Huesca

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Castellon

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.1%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 21.5% 4.65 +20.1%

Draw 27.4% 25.3% 3.95 +4.9%

Away win 43.9% 60.2% 1.66 -27.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 26.6% 37.7% 2.65 -17.7%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1✓ 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huesca1.1

Castellon1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUESCA · PPG 1.40

CASTELLON · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Huesca (H) 28.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +20.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.9%

Castellon (A) 43.9%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huesca face Castellon in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huesca a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Castellon 44%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Huesca and 1.5 for Castellon (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huesca are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.30 for Castellon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Huesca vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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