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Eibar vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Eibar

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cordoba

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.9%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.2%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.8%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Draw 25.7% 26.0% 3.85 -0.6%

Away win 24.1% 22.2% 4.50 +5.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 2–0✓ 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar1.5

Cordoba1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR · PPG 2.15

CORDOBA · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.15) > Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Eibar (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -14.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.6%

Cordoba (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 24%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eibar and 1.0 for Cordoba (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.45 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Eibar vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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