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Cadiz vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:30

Cadiz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Leganes

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-113.8%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-16.6%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 42.7% 2.34 -18.3%

Draw 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.7%

Away win 35.8% 32.8% 3.05 +9.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 15.5% 28.6% 3.50 -27.5%

BTTS 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.8%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cadiz1.0

Leganes1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CADIZ · PPG 1.00

LEGANES · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Cadiz (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -18.3%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.7%

Leganes (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cadiz face Leganes in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cadiz a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Leganes 36%, so Leganes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cadiz and 1.1 for Leganes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cadiz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.95 for Leganes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Cadiz vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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