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Real Murcia vs Eldense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:00

Real Murcia

PPG 1.28 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Eldense

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-114.0%0-27.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.4%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 44.4% 2.25 -25.5%

Draw 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -1.6%

Away win 37.4% 35.7% 2.80 +4.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 56.5% 1.77 -18.2%

Over 3.5 16.0% 34.5% 2.90 -32.2%

BTTS 49.1% 63.7% 1.57 -22.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.1%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Murcia1.0

Eldense1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.28

ELDENSE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Real Murcia (H) 33.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -25.5%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.6%

Eldense (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Murcia face Eldense in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Murcia a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Eldense 37%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Murcia and 1.1 for Eldense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Murcia are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.17 for Eldense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Real Murcia vs Eldense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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