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Malmo FF vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Malmo FF

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vasteras

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.2%0-22.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.7%1-17.4%1-25.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-16.6%3-25.3%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.6%4+-25.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 61.0% 1.64 -14.2%

Draw 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Away win 24.8% 20.0% 5.00 +14.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.1% 1.75 +11.8%

Over 3.5 54.8% 35.7% 2.80 +53.4%

BTTS 63.0% 58.8% 1.70 +7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF2.3

Vasteras1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.00

VASTERAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

59%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -14.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

Vasteras (A) 24.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face Vasteras in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Vasteras 25%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Malmo FF and 1.6 for Vasteras (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Vasteras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Malmo FF vs Vasteras Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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