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FC Andorra vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:15

FC Andorra

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ceuta

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.6%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.5%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.8% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Andorra1.9

Ceuta1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ANDORRA · PPG 1.50

CEUTA · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

FC Andorra (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ceuta (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Andorra face Ceuta in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Andorra a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Ceuta 24%, so FC Andorra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Andorra and 1.1 for Ceuta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Andorra are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.90 for Ceuta. This match finished 0-2.

FC Andorra vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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