Today / Spain - Segunda División / Albacete vs Real Sociedad B

Albacete vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 41 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:15

Albacete

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad B

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.2%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Draw 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Away win 26.9% 26.3% 3.80 +1.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 28.0% 37.0% 2.70 -14.6%

BTTS 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.5

Real Sociedad B1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.40

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.8%

Real Sociedad B (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Real Sociedad B in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad B 27%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Albacete and 1.2 for Real Sociedad B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.90 for Real Sociedad B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Albacete vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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