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Varberg BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 13:00

Varberg BoIS

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.2%1-16.4%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-110.4%4+-24.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 10.7% 17.2% 5.80 -22.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 54.6% 1.83 +16.9%

Over 3.5 46.3% 32.3% 3.10 +43.5%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 67% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varberg BoIS2.7

GIF Sundsvall0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 1.75

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Varberg BoIS (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +2.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 10.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varberg BoIS face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varberg BoIS a 67% chance, the draw 22% and GIF Sundsvall 11%, so Varberg BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Varberg BoIS and 0.8 for GIF Sundsvall (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varberg BoIS are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Varberg BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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