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Sirius vs GAIS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Sirius

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

GAIS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.5%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.2%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.6%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-17.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 57.8% 1.73 +1.6%

Draw 21.2% 26.7% 3.75 -12.3%

Away win 20.1% 22.7% 4.40 -6.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 35.7% 2.80 +20.4%

BTTS 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sirius2.4

GAIS1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRIUS · PPG 3.00

GAIS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sirius (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +1.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.3%

GAIS (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sirius face GAIS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sirius a 59% chance, the draw 21% and GAIS 20%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sirius and 1.0 for GAIS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sirius are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for GAIS. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Sirius vs GAIS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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