Today / China - Super League / Shandong T. vs Wuhan Three T.

Shandong T. vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.8%1-24.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-19.3%4+-26.1%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 76.3% 1.31 -27.8%

Draw 22.9% 20.4% 4.90 +7.3%

Away win 22.1% 12.1% 8.25 +49.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

BTTS 62.0% 60.6% 1.65 +2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.0%

H 55% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.2.6

Wuhan Three T.1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 2.00

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -27.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +7.3%

Wuhan Three T. (A) 22.1%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +49.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face Wuhan Three T. in China - Super League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Wuhan Three T. 22%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Shandong T. and 1.3 for Wuhan Three T. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Wuhan Three T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Shandong T. vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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