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Guangdong GZP vs Yanbian Longdin Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong GZP

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

Yanbian Longdin

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-111.9%0-23.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.7%1-111.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-16.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 69.4% 1.44 -36.4%

Draw 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

Away win 23.3% 13.8% 7.25 +41.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 7.6% 27.4% 3.65 -43.4%

BTTS 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.7%

#2 1–0 20.7%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 11.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong GZP1.0

Yanbian Longdin0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 3.00

YANBIAN LONGDIN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=44.2%

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong GZP (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -36.4%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +21.9%

Yanbian Longdin (A) 23.3%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong GZP face Yanbian Longdin in China - League One on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong GZP a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Yanbian Longdin 23%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guangdong GZP and 0.6 for Yanbian Longdin (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong GZP are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Yanbian Longdin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 3-4.

Guangdong GZP vs Yanbian Longdin Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions