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Trygg.Lade vs Tromsdalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Trygg.Lade

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tromsdalen

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.1%0-22.8%0-32.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-01.7%1-14.6%1-26.1%1-35.5%1-4+6.9%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.6%2-35.9%2-4+7.5%3 3-01.3%3-13.6%3-24.8%3-34.3%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.2%4+-24.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+4.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 24.4% 4.10 +43.1%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 43.0% 61.7% 1.62 -30.3%

Over 2.5 78.9% 70.4% 1.42 +12.0%

Over 3.5 71.1% 48.8% 2.05 +45.8%

BTTS 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob66.7%

A 43% / xG 2.2-2.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 1–2✓ 6.1%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 1–3 5.5%

#5 1–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg.Lade2.2

Tromsdalen2.7

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 71.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG.LADE · PPG 1.33

TROMSDALEN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Trygg.Lade (H) 34.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +43.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Tromsdalen (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg.Lade face Tromsdalen in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg.Lade a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Tromsdalen 43%, so Tromsdalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Trygg.Lade and 2.7 for Tromsdalen (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg.Lade are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Tromsdalen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Trygg.Lade vs Tromsdalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions