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Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Qingdao West C.

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.2%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.6%1-19.2%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.1%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 56.2% 1.78 -5.0%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 22.2% 26.0% 3.85 -8.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 63.7% 1.57 -3.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 41.7% 2.40 -3.5%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun2.2

Qingdao West C.1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.67

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=53.4%

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -5.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Qingdao West C. (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Qingdao West C. 22%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.1 for Qingdao West C. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for Qingdao West C.. This match finished 2-3.

Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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