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Qingdao Hainiu vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 09:00

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 50% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.0%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.5%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 42.0% 2.38 -1.2%

Draw 27.5% 31.7% 3.15 -8.0%

Away win 31.0% 35.5% 2.82 -12.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Over 3.5 26.5% 27.0% 3.70 -1.2%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu1.4

Chongqing T.1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 2.17

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=41.5%

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -1.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.0%

Chongqing T. (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Chongqing T. in China - Super League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Chongqing T. 31%, so Qingdao Hainiu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.2 for Chongqing T. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Chongqing T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions