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Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 07:30

Changchun Yatai

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shenzhen J.

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.8%0-26.7%0-33.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.2%1-110.7%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.2%2-17.3%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 48.8% 2.05 -33.2%

Draw 25.2% 29.9% 3.35 -9.3%

Away win 42.1% 30.8% 3.25 +36.8%

Over 2.5 61.3% 54.1% 1.85 +13.4%

Over 3.5 37.6% 32.3% 3.10 +16.6%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.4

Shenzhen J.1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 2.00

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 2.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -33.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.3%

Shenzhen J. (A) 42.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Shenzhen J. in China - League One on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Shenzhen J. 42%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Changchun Yatai and 1.7 for Shenzhen J. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Shenzhen J.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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