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Kahibah vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Kahibah

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adamstown R.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.6%0-25.0%0-33.5%0-4+3.1%1 1-03.6%1-17.8%1-28.4%1-36.0%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-27.1%2-35.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.7%3-13.7%3-24.0%3-32.9%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 32.3% 3.10 +4.2%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 42.8% 54.1% 1.85 -20.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 43% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kahibah1.7

Adamstown R.2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KAHIBAH · PPG 0.67

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kahibah (H) 33.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Adamstown R. (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kahibah face Adamstown R. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kahibah a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Adamstown R. 43%, so Adamstown R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kahibah and 2.1 for Adamstown R. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kahibah are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Adamstown R.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Kahibah vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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