Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Launceston vs Devonport

Launceston vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 04:30

Launceston

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Devonport

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 91.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+45.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.5%0-21.0%0-31.5%0-4+5.5%1 1-00.3%1-11.1%1-22.5%1-33.7%1-4+13.6%2 2-00.3%2-11.4%2-23.1%2-34.5%2-4+16.6%3 3-00.3%3-11.1%3-22.5%3-33.7%3-4+13.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.2%4+-22.7%4+-34.0%4+-4+14.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.5% 30.8% 3.25 -25.9%

Draw 19.6% 24.4% 4.10 -11.8%

Away win 63.0% 57.1% 1.75 +10.3%

Over 2.5 79.0% 78.1% 1.28 +1.1%

Over 3.5 91.0% 62.5% 1.60 +45.6%

BTTS 66.7% 77.5% 1.29 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)4.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 63% / xG 2.4-4.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–4 5.0%

#2 2–3 4.5%

#3 2–5 4.4%

#4 1–4 4.1%

#5 3–4 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston2.4

Devonport4.4

COMBINED 6.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 91.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON · PPG 1.80

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Launceston (H) 17.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -25.9%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.8%

Devonport (A) 63.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston face Devonport in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston a 18% chance, the draw 20% and Devonport 63%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Launceston and 4.4 for Devonport (6.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Devonport. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Launceston vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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