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Brisbane Roar B vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 04:00

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.3%0-26.5%0-36.6%0-4+10.6%1 1-01.7%1-15.2%1-28.0%1-38.1%1-4+13.0%2 2-01.1%2-13.2%2-24.9%2-34.9%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.0%3-32.0%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 23.1% 4.33 -24.1%

Draw 21.1% 22.7% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Over 2.5 68.7% 76.9% 1.30 -10.7%

Over 3.5 61.7% 56.5% 1.77 +9.2%

BTTS 59.8% 74.1% 1.35 -19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob59.8%

A 65% / xG 1.2-3.0 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 8.1%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 0–3 6.6%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 1–4 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Roar B1.2

Eastern Suburbs3.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.86

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Roar B (H) 13.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -24.1%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 65.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Roar B face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Roar B a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Eastern Suburbs 65%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Brisbane Roar B and 3.0 for Eastern Suburbs (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Roar B are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.80 for Eastern Suburbs. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Brisbane Roar B vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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