Today / USA - USL Championship / Tampa Bay vs Phoenix Rising

Tampa Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.1%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.2%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 64.5% 1.55 -20.2%

Draw 27.1% 26.7% 3.75 +1.0%

Away win 21.4% 19.0% 5.25 +7.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 56.5% 1.77 -18.2%

Over 3.5 15.4% 33.9% 2.95 -32.7%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay1.3

Phoenix Rising0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.50

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.0%

Phoenix Rising (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Phoenix Rising 21%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tampa Bay and 0.7 for Phoenix Rising (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Tampa Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions