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Rhode Island vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brooklyn FC

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.9%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.2%1-19.8%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 64.5% 1.55 -17.5%

Draw 24.7% 25.3% 3.95 -1.5%

Away win 22.1% 20.8% 4.80 +3.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 56.5% 1.77 +4.6%

Over 3.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island2.0

Brooklyn FC0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.20

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.5%

Brooklyn FC (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Brooklyn FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Brooklyn FC 22%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rhode Island and 0.9 for Brooklyn FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.00 for Brooklyn FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Rhode Island vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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