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Juventude vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:30

Juventude

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Sport Recife

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.7%0-118.7%0-25.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-110.2%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.9%2-12.8%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 44.6% 2.24 -21.0%

Draw 44.0% 31.7% 3.15 +38.6%

Away win 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Over 2.5 23.8% 44.4% 2.25 -27.9%

Over 3.5 2.7% 23.1% 4.33 -53.0%

BTTS 29.3% 52.6% 1.90 -26.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob29.3%

D 44% / xG 0.5-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.7%

#2 0–1✓ 18.7%

#3 1–0 17.9%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude0.5

Sport Recife0.6

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.00

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -21.0%

Draw 44.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +38.6%

Sport Recife (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 29% chance, the draw 44% and Sport Recife 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Juventude and 0.6 for Sport Recife (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Juventude vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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