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Miami FC vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Louisville City

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.3%0-27.3%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.4%1-111.7%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 19.6% 5.10 +65.8%

Draw 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Away win 41.9% 65.4% 1.53 -35.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Over 3.5 31.4% 42.6% 2.35 -26.2%

BTTS 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob56.8%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.3

Louisville City1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.75

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 32.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +65.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

Louisville City (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Louisville City 42%, so Louisville City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Miami FC and 1.6 for Louisville City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +65.8%. This match finished 4-3.

Miami FC vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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