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Indy Eleven vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lexington

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Draw 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

Away win 23.7% 35.1% 2.85 -19.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 55.6% 1.80 -15.6%

Over 3.5 20.6% 33.3% 3.00 -22.9%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven1.5

Lexington0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.50

LEXINGTON · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.3%

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

Lexington (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Lexington 24%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Indy Eleven and 0.8 for Lexington (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Indy Eleven vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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