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Utah Royals W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:30

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 48.8% 2.05 -2.6%

Draw 27.8% 29.4% 3.40 -3.3%

Away win 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 18.5% 37.0% 2.70 -30.0%

BTTS 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.3

Denver Summit W0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.25

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=47.5%

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.3%

Denver Summit W (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Denver Summit W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Denver Summit W 25%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Utah Royals W and 0.9 for Denver Summit W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Denver Summit W. This match finished 2-1.

Utah Royals W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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