Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maringa vs Santa Cruz

Maringa vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:30

Maringa

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.7%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.6%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.3%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% — — —

Draw 26.0% — — —

Away win 37.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maringa1.5

Santa Cruz1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINGA · PPG 1.50

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Maringa (H) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santa Cruz (A) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Maringa face Santa Cruz in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maringa a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Santa Cruz 37%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maringa and 1.5 for Santa Cruz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maringa are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Santa Cruz. This match finished 1-1.

Maringa vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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