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Cusco vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:15

Cusco

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-110.7%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.6%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 60.6% 1.65 -22.1%

Draw 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

Away win 24.0% 20.0% 5.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 54.6% 1.83 -35.9%

Over 3.5 13.2% 32.3% 3.10 -35.4%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–0✓ 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco1.2

Atletico Grau0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.00

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=47.2%

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -22.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.7%

Atletico Grau (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Atletico Grau 24%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cusco and 0.7 for Atletico Grau (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.63 for Atletico Grau. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Cusco vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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