Today / USA - USL Championship / Loudoun Utd vs Detroit City

Loudoun Utd vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:00

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Detroit City

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.4%0-26.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-17.8%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 35.1% 2.85 +2.3%

Draw 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Away win 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 7.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun Utd1.2

Detroit City1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.80

DETROIT CITY · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun Utd (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +2.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

Detroit City (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun Utd face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun Utd a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Detroit City 37%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Loudoun Utd and 1.3 for Detroit City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun Utd are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.25 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Loudoun Utd vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions