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Mirassol vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:00

Mirassol

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fluminense

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.8%0-27.4%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 38.8% 2.58 -16.2%

Draw 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -12.4%

Away win 41.9% 36.0% 2.78 +16.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Over 3.5 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.2

Fluminense1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.13

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -16.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.4%

Fluminense (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Fluminense 42%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mirassol and 1.5 for Fluminense (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.14 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Mirassol vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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