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Gremio vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:00

Gremio

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santos

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.6%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.4%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 45.9% 2.18 +5.3%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 22.5% 25.3% 3.95 -6.7%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.4

Santos1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 2.00

SANTOS · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +5.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Santos (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Santos 25%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gremio and 1.0 for Santos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Gremio vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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