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D. Iquique vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 21:30

D. Iquique

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Curico Unido

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.1%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.0%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -11.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 29.1% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

BTTS 51.7% 62.5% 1.60 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Iquique1.8

Curico Unido0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 1.50

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

D. Iquique (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

Curico Unido (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Iquique face Curico Unido in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Iquique a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Curico Unido 22%, so D. Iquique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for D. Iquique and 0.9 for Curico Unido (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Iquique are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Curico Unido. This match finished 1-1.

D. Iquique vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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