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Fortaleza vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 21:30

Fortaleza

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Londrina

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.5%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.2%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.4%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 30.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza1.7

Londrina1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA · PPG 2.50

LONDRINA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Londrina (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Londrina 24%, so Fortaleza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fortaleza and 1.0 for Londrina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Londrina. This match finished 3-0.

Fortaleza vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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